Kevin Curran, Professor of Cyber-Security at Ulster University and senior member of the IEEE, on how businesses are already factoring quantum computing into their equations
The landscape of quantum computing is ever-changing. With quantum computers a trillion times more powerful than even the most state-of-the art classical computers, the practice of integrating this powerful technology is becoming increasingly considered.
In fact, according to a recent study conducted by the Institute of Electronical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), more than 35 per cent of technologists surveyed expect quantum computing integration and implementation in their company’s operations to be started in 2025. Additionally, around 30 per cent expect the technology to be fully implemented, while just over 28 per cent will be considering implementing quantum computing in 2025. And an estimated 44 per cent of businesses will deploy quantum computers over the next three years.
The study signals a shift towards more practical and impactful quantum computing applications. With one of the most significant challenges facing current businesses being the ever-evolving threat landscape, quantum computing holds the potential to transform cyber-security. However, it also poses a threat. These same quantum capabilities that can secure enhance encryption protocols can also, in the wrong hands, break traditional cryptographic algorithms.
The quantum threat
As organisations continue to prioritise security in their digital strategies, the integration of quantum computing technologies into defence systems must be carefully weighed. Indeed, as well as being leveraged by businesses to enhance defence systems, the development of quantum computing poses a threat to the security of public key algorithms, and, consequently, cyber-security strategies.
To break current cryptosystems, quantum computers must have around 500 to 2,000 qubits. The term “post-quantum cryptography” refers to cryptographic algorithms which are believed to be secure against an attack by a quantum computer. Although all known current quantum computers are currently too limited to attack any real cryptographic algorithm, cryptographers are creating new algorithms to prepare for a time when quantum computing becomes more of a threat. Most symmetric cryptographic algorithms are believed to be relatively secure against attacks by quantum computers.
This phenomenon, years-to-quantum or Y2Q, describes the ability of quantum computing to decrypt data previously thought to be secure, and poses a significant threat to most organisations’ defence systems. Additionally, as quantum computing steadily becomes a reality, many public-key algorithms will be obsolete, including those where security relies on hard mathematical problems such as the integer factorisation, the discrete logarithm or the elliptic-curve discrete logarithm problem.
This means that when quantum computing does become more widespread, many existing means of protecting data will be broken. However, this doesn’t diminish the benefits of continuing to use quantum computing, as applying new quantum encryption techniques will lead to new means of secure communication.
Consequently, it is important for there to always be a way to distribute a “key” from one to the other, so that each can decrypt the other devices information. The use of public key distribution has traditionally been used to achieve this.
The quantum solution
In the next five years, several emerging cyber-security threats will require vigilant attention from organisations. The advent of quantum computing is likely to challenge current cryptographic standards, making the transition to quantum-resistant algorithms a necessity.
For example, to mitigate the risks associated with Y2Q, organisations and individuals should begin transitioning to quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms, a process guided by efforts such as those from the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which is standardising quantum-resistant algorithms.
Additionally, conducting audits of existing cryptographic assets, implementing hybrid cryptographic systems, educating IT professionals about quantum risks and investing in research are all strategic steps that can help manage the transition. Proactive measures taken now can ensure more robust security in the quantum computing era, thus preventing potential widespread disruption.
With the development of quantum communication protocols, particularly quantum key distribution (QKD) securing communications against potential quantum computer attacks, these protocols will therefore be crucial in organisations transition to quantum as a defence system.
Furthermore, initiatives such as the European Quantum Communication Infrastructure (EuroQCI) are working towards establishing secure quantum networks across Europe. There is also a focus on creating standards for quantum software and hardware interoperability, which is essential for the development of a cohesive quantum computing ecosystem.
A quantum future
In recent years, quantum computing has made significant strides across several key areas. Indeed, many large corporations are already increasing the number of qubits in their quantum processes, so it seems likely that more and more organisations will start implementing these practices in the near future as “quantum supremacy” gains relevance.
While many experts suggest that practical, scalable quantum computers that consistently outperform classical systems may still be a few years away, there is optimism about achieving specific milestones in the near term. The next five to 10 years are likely to be crucial for witnessing significant advancements in this area.
Kevin is an independent cyber-security expert who has made significant contributions to advancing the knowledge and understanding of computer networking and systems, with over 800 published works to his name. Regarded as one of the top UK cyber-security experts, he regularly comments on the latest technological developments and cyber-threats, including the internet of things (IoT) and smart devices, cryptocurrency, phishing attacks and ransomware.
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