Mid-year consumer outlook: From cautious to intentional consumption

In early 2024, consumers around the world were feeling pressured by macroeconomic conditions, global unrest and more. But now?

The state of global consumers today can be summed up in one word: determined.

The upcoming Mid-Year Consumer Outlook from NielsenIQ (NIQ) provides an analytic assessment of the state of consumers, based on a global footprint of consumer intelligence solutions and the feedback of over 17,000 online consumers in 23 countries who were surveyed in June and July 2024. The goal: to better understand their current thinking about the economic environment, as well as what they’re buying (and why).

Navigating the shifts in consumer decision making

Our multifaceted analysis offers both a look back and a look forward. In addition to highlighting what has changed for global consumers in the past six months and what disruptions remain, the Mid-Year Consumer Outlook: Guide to 2025 reveals what consumer packaged goods (CPG) and tech and durables (T&D) manufacturers and retailers should anticipate as they plan for 2025. The report’s findings give these businesses a strategic roadmap for reaching consumers – and converting them into customers – well into next year and beyond.

Among other highlights, we found:

• • Three in 10 global consumers said they were in a better financial position than they were a year ago. This optimism runs higher in markets such as Brazil, India, Indonesia and South Africa. By comparison, 32 per cent of global consumers said they’re in a worse financial position. These sentiments are more common in the US, UK and South Korea.
  • Monthly global CPG inflation has slowed to 1.7 per cent year over year (YOY). Inflationary pressures continue to subside in most markets, but they remain higher than average in Latin America and Africa.
  • Global consumers are spending more for less volume. A consumer spending 100 US dollars in 2022 would have to spend $117 in today’s dollars to get the same basket of goods. As a result, they are delegating their spending very purposefully – and any excess will be leveraged in strategic ways.
  • Over $6 billion in sales have shifted to discount CPG price tiers globally, at the expense of premium and mainstream offerings. This reinforces the fact that consumers are forming new habits in their search for value options, which may start to exclude higher price points.
  • Half of global consumers say they’re buying more private label products than ever before. What’s more, an increasing number report they no longer hold negative connotations of private label products as “discount alternatives”. Private label products represented just 15 per cent of CPG sales in 2009. Today, they account for 22 per cent of the CPG landscape.
  • Consumers are making both conscious and subconscious decisions that address their unmet needs. We expect fast-moving catalysts such as GLP-1 medications, omnichannel shopping, artificial intelligence and fluctuating commodity costs to drive meaningful change for businesses in 2025.

What this means for brands

Growth beyond inflation is possible. But it must be done with a full view of all available consumer targets (to know who you’re looking to engage) and with a deep understanding of how consumers of all financial circumstances will be spreading their spending across categories of interest. In addition, any brand that can deliver on the basics of affordability, innovate often and exceed expectations for efficacy and quality has the potential to become a top-of-mind choice for intentional consumers.

As CPG and T&D manufacturers and retailers develop their strategic plans for 2025, they should keep the following in mind:

• • Don’t overestimate the speed of consumer recovery.
  • Maximizing penetration is essential in this era of disloyal buyers.
  • Wealth will accumulate unevenly as growth in consumers peaks.
  • The most valued products deliver value in multiple ways.
  •  From AI to omni, change needs a hint of familiarity to balance the allure of innovation.

To find more mission-critical consumer intelligence data and insights, sign up to receive the Mid-Year Consumer Outlook: Guide to 2025 when it launches and register to join our September 24, 2024 webinar.

Looking for a holistic understanding of what consumers think, feel, and do? By measuring the total store, the total consumer and the total omnichannel journey, NIQ and GfK deliver the Full View™ of consumer intelligence.

By Marta Cyhan-Bowles, Chief Communications Officer and Head of Global Marketing COE, NielsenIQ